Gold prices hit record high ahead of new policy

Domestic gold surpasses VND 138 million per tael
On October 1, SJC gold bars rose by VND 1.6 million, reaching VND 136.4 – 138.4 million per tael. Gold rings also set a new record at VND 136 million per tael. After nine months, SJC bars have gained more than VND 54 million (64%), while gold rings climbed by VND 50 million (59.6%). Despite record prices, buying demand still dominated, forcing some businesses to limit sales or announce temporary shortages.

The global price reached USD 3,894 per ounce the same day, up USD 1,280 since the beginning of the year (47%). Still, SJC gold remained about VND 14 million higher than the world price, while gold rings were VND 10 million higher.

Supply expected after October 10
The market is anticipating that once Decree 232/2025 takes effect, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will issue gold import licenses to businesses and commercial banks, increasing domestic supply. Some firms are reportedly already being considered for licensing, with imports expected soon after October 10. However, whether domestic prices will drop or keep rising remains uncertain, as they depend heavily on global movements.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu noted that geopolitical tensions, lower U.S. interest rates, and the temporary U.S. government shutdown are all pushing gold to new highs. He suggested that once supply improves, the gap between domestic and global prices will narrow, and Vietnam’s gold market could stabilize even if international prices continue to climb.

Returning the market to fair competition
The new decree not only allows more companies to produce gold bars but also expands rights to import raw gold. This is expected to create a more transparent and competitive market, narrowing price gaps and reducing the perception that only SJC gold is valuable. Experts emphasize the need to clearly communicate that SJC is no longer a “national brand,” encouraging diverse production of gold bars.

According to Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, gold imports may not immediately close the price gap but will help stabilize market psychology and curb speculation. Dr. Le Xuan Nghia suggested that in the long run, Vietnam should remove import quotas and consider establishing a national gold exchange to align more closely with international prices.

Most experts agree that once supply and demand balance out, domestic gold prices will move closer to global levels, with the gap shrinking to just VND 3 – 5 million per tael—a more sustainable, stable, and transparent market state.